Hand reading 101

Sep
22

So today i thought id do a hand reading post to help you guys understand where we can get information that we can use during a hand to make as best decisions as possible.

IPoker No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (8 handed) - IPoker Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

UTG+1 (t11,786)
MP1 (t2,800)
MP2 (t3,505)
CO (t3,000)
Button (t7,150)
SB (t500)
Hero (BB) (t6,170)
UTG (t2,998)

Hero's M: 20.57

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4h, 5d

3 folds, MP2 calls t200, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: (t500) Jh, 2c, 10d (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: (t500) 4c (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t700, Hero calls t700

River: (t1,900) 10h (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t2,580, Hero calls t2,580

Total pot: t7,060

Now i had no hands on the villain here. First thing we can take is that villain open limped the HJ and short of him being some kind of boss(this is like 5 levels into a $22 Freezeout so this is unlikely) this is almost always a sign of a weak player.

So onto the hand. We check flop just to give up and he checks behind. Now when he does this it means one of 2 things, his hand is weak(or giving up) or he has a monster he is slowplaying.

Once he bets 1.5x pot on the turn we still continue with our read and now its even more true by his sizing, notice when he bets this is still consistent. Think about Jx, that bets the flop. Tx either bets flop or bets smaller than this on the turn. So he either has a hand like JT(notice JJ/TT prob dont limp pre),22/44. we also have a 4 so that makes 44 less likely. He could be completely bluffing or semi bluffing, either way we cannot fold.

Now to the river, the Tx is a good card for us. He shouldn't have any Tx and no draws came in. We check hoping to show our 4 down. He now 1.3x pot on river.

FWIW most randoms wont double barrel bluff complete air here but they may bluff their draws that miss.

98 suited misses,Q9 suited misses, all clubs miss. Where as the hands that he would bet like this for value just arent that likely.

The JT is now less likely due to the river T. There are now 6 combos of JT.

22 has 3 combos

44 has 1 combo as we have a 4.

So we lose to 6+3+1= 10 combos.

We beat 98 suited = 4 combos
Q9 suited = 4 combos
say 15 flush draws = 15 combos

so we beat 4+4+15=23

Notice here though we cannot count all of these as its unlikely that a random player always bluffs his draws twice here.

But also there minds are firmly lop sided towards slowplaying also which doesn't make sense with these sizings.

Anyhows we are having to call 2500 to win 4500 ish. so 4500/2500= 1.8 to 1

Even if we are very cautious and say he only has 25% of his draws here that is around 6 combos.

So lose to 10 combos and beat 6, or 10/6 = 1.66/1 to break even and we have 1.8 so this is a relatively comfortable call.

Remember when we play we want to rationalise what makes sense and what doesnt. Deductive reasoning, what hands cant he have?

See you next time

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